Some Donors Announce Their Pledges to the Global Fund for 2011-2013

2. NEWS
24 Sep 2010

France has announced that it will contribute $1.4 billion to the Global Fund during the three-year period 2011-2013, an increase of about 9% over its contribution during the period 2007-2009. France is one of five countries that have indicated this week how much they plan to contribute. Most countries will make their announcements at the Global Fund's replenishment meeting in New York on 4-5 October 2010. The other four countries that have announced are Japan ($800 million, up 42%), Canada ($520 million, up 36%), Norway ($225 million, up 32%) and China ($14 million, up 133%). (All monetary amounts in this article are in US dollars. Comparisons with earlier pledges are approximate because of exchange rate fluctuations.)

 

In early 2010, the Global Fund provided donors with three possible resource needs scenarios for the period 2011-2013:

  • Resource Needs Scenario 1, which would cost $13 billion, would allow for the continuation of funding for existing programmes. New programmes could only be funded at a significantly lower level than in recent years.
  • Resource Needs Scenario 2, which would cost $17 billion, would allow for the continuation of funding for existing programmes, and funding for new programmes at a level that comes close to that of recent years.
  • Resource Needs Scenario 3, which would cost $20 billion, would allow for the continuation of funding for existing programmes, and for well-performing programmes to be scaled up significantly, allowing in turn for more rapid progress towards achieving the health-related Millennium Development Goals (MDGs).

Many people are hoping that the Global Fund will raise between $17 and $20 billion, but are apprehensive because of the current economic climate. (There are a number of initiatives underway to persuade donors to give generously to the Global Fund, including an online petition and a Global Week of Action organised by the Communities Delegation of the Global Fund Board with the support of a number of non-profit organisations - see www.globalfundreplenishment.org.)

 

Earlier this year, the Global Fund also released a Technical Note in which it outlined four possible formulae, or "contribution scenarios," for obtaining the money that the Fund needs for 2011-2013. The scenarios are as follows:

  • Scenario 1 (the "Pro-Rata"scenario): Each country contributes a share of the need that is equal to its share of all contributions given to the Fund during 2007-2009.
  • Scenario 2 is based on each country's share of contributions made to the International Development Association (i.e., traditional foreign aid), and is not pursued further here.
  • Scenario 3 (the "Adjusted GNI" scenario): Each country contributes a share of the need that is equal to its share of global Gross National Income (GNI), adjusted by GNI per capita.
  • Scenario 4 (the "0.7" scenario): This is a hybrid between Scenarios 1 and 3, in which the contributions of those countries whose "Scenario 1 contribution" is less than 0.7 (i.e., 70%) of their "Scenario 3 contribution" are increased to the 0.7 level. The contributions of the other countries are then reduced to "offset" these additional contributions.

(The four scenarios are discussed in more depth in "Which Countries Should Give How Much to the Global Fund?" in GFO 117.)

 

To supplement the scenarios developed by the Fund, GFO developed a "bad scenario" to illustrate the possible thinking of some donors - Scenario 0 (the "No Increase" scenario), whereby each country contributes the same dollar amount per year that it has averaged in recent years, even though the need has increased significantly.

 

 

In the table below, we show what each country's contribution would be if it followed Scenario 0, and if it followed Scenarios 1, 3 or 4 for both the $17 billion and $20 billion targets. All these numbers are as published by the Global Fund. In the last column of the table, we record the pledges announced so far.

Table: Amounts that donors might contribute to the Global Fund to meet
the $17 billion and $20 billion targets for 2011-3013, as per various scenarios,
plus the amounts already announced as pledges

Donor

Average Annual Contr-ibution 2007-09, $m.

Total contribution over the three years 2011-2013, $m.

Scenario 0: No Increase

To meet $17b. target

To meet $20b. target

Pledges announced by 23 Sept 2010, and % change vs 2007-2009 *

Scenario 1

Scenario 3

Scenario 4

Scenario 1

Scenario 3

Scenario 4

Australia

29.0

87

160

291

204

189

342

240

 

 

Austria

0

0

0

138

97

0

162

114

 

 

Belgium

18.6

56

103

176

123

121

207

145

 

 

Brazil

0.1

0

0

70

49

0

82

57

 

 

Canada

127.1

381

703

485

657

827

571

773

520

(+36%)

China

2.0

6

11

96

67

13

113

79

14

(+133%)

Denmark

29.1

87

161

161

150

189

189

177

 

 

Eur. Commission

143.7

431

795

795

795

935

935

935

 

 

Finland

4.1

12

22

103

72

26

121

85

 

 

France

429.1

1,287

2,374

955

2,217

2,793

1,123

2,609

1,400

(+9%)

Germany

233.4

700

1,291

1,237

1,206

1,519

1,456

1,419

 

 

Greece

0.9

3

5

77

54

6

91

64

 

 

India

2.0

6

11

11

10

13

13

12

 

 

Ireland

26.1

78

144

92

135

170

108

159

 

 

Italy **

184.5

554

1,021

622

954

1,201

731

1,122

 

 

Japan

188.1

564

1,040

1,559

1,092

1,224

1,835

1,284

800 ***

(+42%)

Korea (Rep. of)

3.3

10

18

188

132

22

222

155

 

 

Kuwait

0.8

2

4

26

18

5

31

22

 

 

Luxembourg

3.4

10

19

29

21

22

35

24

 

 

Mexico

0

0

0

74

52

0

87

61

 

 

Netherlands

93.5

281

517

346

483

608

407

568

 

 

New Zealand

0

0

0

29

20

0

34

24

 

 

Norway

56.7

170

314

302

293

369

356

345

225

(+32%)

Portugal

2.8

8

16

38

26

18

44

31

 

 

Russia

68.3

205

378

110

353

445

129

415

 

 

Saudi Arabia

6.0

18

33

49

34

39

57

40

 

 

South Africa

1.1

3

6

14

10

7

16

11

 

 

Spain

151.3

454

837

389

782

984

458

920

 

 

Gen. Cat. (Spain)

2.3

7

13

13

13

15

15

15

 

 

Sweden

84.9

255

470

200

439

552

235

516

 

 

Switzerland

6.2

19

35

272

191

41

320

224

 

 

Thailand

1.0

3

6

5

5

7

6

6

 

 

Turkey

0

0

0

54

38

0

63

44

 

 

United Kingdom

150.5

452

833

1,058

778

980

1245

915

 

 

United States

829.7

2,489

4,589

5,757

4,287

5,399

6,773

5,044

 

 

Other countries

0.9

3

5

111

78

6

131

92

 

 

Pvt Foundations

100.7

302

557

557

557

655

655

655

 

 

Private Sector

56.2

169

340

340

340

400

400

400

 

 

Innov. Financing

20.3

61

170

170

170

200

200

200

 

 

Total

3,057.2

9,172

17,000

17,000

17,000

20,000

20,000

20,000

2,959

 

 

* The percentage increases shown here compare the dollar value of 2011-2013 pledges with the dollar value of 2007-2009 contributions as published by the Global Fund in its March 2010 Technical Note. For pledges made in currencies other than US dollars, exchange rate fluctuations mean that the percentage increase shown here could be significantly different from the percentage increase in the national currency.

 

 

** The "Average Annual Contribution 2007-09" shown for Italy is based in part on Italy's pledge of 130 million Euros ($165 million) for 2009. In fact, Italy has not yet paid any of its 2009 pledge.

 

 

*** The period over which the Japan pledge applies is "the coming years."

 

 

Note: For each of Scenarios 1, 3 and 4, the contributions by the European Commission, private foundations, the private sector and innovative finance sources are flat-lined because indicators of capacity to contribute (such as Adjusted GNI) are not relevant to these donors. It is assumed that contributions from the European Commission and private foundations will equal their current shares of total contributions to the Global Fund, and that the contributions from the private sector and innovative finance sources will increase (as a share of total contributions to the Global Fund).

 

"Technical Note 1: Illustrative Contribution Tables," is available at www.theglobalfund.org/en/replenishment/hague/documents.


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